搞清这11个问题,你就懂无人驾驶汽车了
When are these things coming？
In 2013， Nissan announced an "ambitious goal" of having an affordable autonomous car ready by 2020. Others who see that as overly ambitious think you're more likely to see them in serious production a few years after that―say， 2025 or 2030.
How much will they cost？
Right now， the technology alone adds $70，000 to $100，000 to the cost of a vehicle. Few people could pay that much more for a magic flying carpet， let alone a car. Automakers are wrestling1） to make it affordable， and there are projections2） that by the time autocars go into mass production， the additional cost might fall to between $3，000 and $5，000.
How do they work？
Lots of sensory equipment are fed into the vehicle's computers. Radar， lasers and cameras collect data on the distance to objects and their speed if they're moving. GPS helps， and an inertial3） navigation system in the computer uses dead reckoning4） to continuously calculate position， orientation， direction and speed of the vehicle and surrounding objects. Without getting too deep into the weeds5）： cloud-based data could be used to continually update the onboard computer， including data collected from other cars.
Can they deal with work zones， or cyclists and a kid in the street？
They're pretty good at it now， and their developers are working to make them better. Sensors on the vehicle keep track of everything in its path， and the vehicle stops for obstacles or to navigate around them.
Are autonomous cars and connected cars the same thing？
No. An autonomous car uses onboard technology to find its way around and keep from running into things. Connected cars， a concept also in active development， provide direct short-range communication between vehicles （and highway beacons） to help them coexist better. The connected-car technology could be an asset6） to autonomous cars， but it's not the steppingstone some experts once thought necessary. Connected cars will still need an active driver.
Will a car with no hands
on the wheel be safer？
Yes， experts say. Driver error causes the overwhelming7） majority of crashes―93 percent of them， according to one federal report―and there are more than 5 million crashes each year. Just getting drunk drivers from behind the wheel could reduce fatalities8） by 39%.
Does that mean there
will be zero crashes？ Nobody dares make that claim， and for good reason： too many things can go wrong on the roadway. But there could be a dramatic reduction.
Who are the winners and losers if these things come to rule the road？
The quick take9） is greater mobility for the blind， the elderly， people with disabilities and those too young to drive. Professions that figure to suffer： cab drivers， truck drivers and bus drivers. If crash rates decrease quickly by a large amount， body shops10）， insurance companies and emergency rooms will see less business.
Will there be less traffic congestion11）？
Probably yes， but maybe no. Cars moving along briskly12）―no rubbernecking13）， distracted drivers or left-lane slowpokes14）―clears up a lot of the headache right off the bat15）. There will be less stop-and-go and smoother passage through intersections， and cars will be able to travel much closer together. But two things may put more cars on the road： those who can't drive now will be on the road， and since being in a vehicle that doesn't need to be driven will be more enjoyable and productive， people may spend more time on the road.
What does this mean for parking？
Imagine getting dropped off at the door wherever you go. That could happen. The estimated 31% of land devoted to parking in urban cores could be used for something else if cars toddle16） off on their own to park in more distant satellite lots or garages that aren't in prime-time17） space.
何时上市？
2013年，日产公司宣布了一个“宏大目标”：将于2020年前推出大众消费得起的无人驾驶汽车。其他人却觉得这一目标定得太高，认为要再晚几年（比如2025年或2030年）才更有望看到无人驾驶汽车真正投入生产。
造价多少？
目前，单是无人驾驶这项技术就能使一辆汽车的成本增加7～10万美元。就算是买魔法飞毯，愿意出此巨资的消费者也寥寥无几，更别说是一辆汽车了。汽车制造商正在竭力使无人驾驶汽车符合大众消费水平，据预测，等到无人驾驶汽车开始批量生产时，这项附加成本可能会降至3000～5000美元。
如何运行？
无人驾驶汽车的计算机系统中装配着大量传感设备。雷达、激光器和摄像头用来收集车辆与物体之间的距离信息，如果物体是移动的，则还会收集移动物体的速度信息。计算机中配置的惯性导航系统会利用航位推算法不断计算车辆及其周围物体的坐标、方位、走向和速度，全球定位系统也会协助完成这一任务。简单来说，车载计算机的信息可以通过云数据（包括从其他汽车那里收集而来的数据）来不断更新。
无人驾驶汽车能否应对道路施工区或路上的骑行者和小孩？
目前无人驾驶汽车很擅于应对这种情况，而且研发人员正在进一步提高其应对能力。无人驾驶汽车上的各种传感器能够密切注意其行驶道路上的所有物体，汽车遇到障碍物会停止前行，或是绕开障碍物。
无人驾驶汽车和联网汽车
是一回事吗？
不是。无人驾驶汽车通过车载技术进行导航，防止与其他物体相撞。而联网汽车（这一概念目前也在积极研发）能够实现车与车（以及与公路指示灯）之间的短程直接通信，帮助彼此之间更好地共存。联网汽车技术可以作为无人驾驶汽车的一项有用配置，但并不像一些专家一度认为的那样是实现无人驾驶的必要技术。联网汽车仍然需要驾驶员的积极干预。
无人操纵方向盘的汽车
是否更安全？
是的，专家是这样说的。绝大多数车祸都是因驾驶员的过失所致。据美国联邦政府的一份报告显示，有93%的车祸系驾驶员引起的，而美国每年发生的车祸就超过了500万起。单单杜绝酒驾就能将车祸的死亡人数减少39%。
这是否意味着无人驾驶汽车
可以做到零车祸？
关于这点，没人敢保证，原因很简单：路上可能发生的不妙情况太多。但是车祸有可能会大幅减少。 如果无人驾驶汽车日后成为道路的主宰，谁会是赢家，谁会是输家？
大体来说，盲人、老人、残障人士和未到驾车年龄的孩子的出行将会更加便捷。利益可能会受损的职业群体包括出租车司机、卡车司机和公交车司机。如果交通事故迅速大量减少，那么汽车修理店、保险公司和急诊室将会冷清不少。
交通拥堵会不会减少？
有可能会，但也有可能不会。汽车快速通行之后，因为没了司机减速看热闹，没了注意力不集中的司机或是喜欢在左车道（译注：左车道是快车道）开慢车的司机，很多令人头疼的问题也就立即迎刃而解了。汽车在交叉路口走走停停的情况将会减少，通行将会更加顺畅，而且汽车的行车间距也将可以大大缩短。但是，有两个因素可能会导致路上的汽车更多：一是那些现在不能开车的人将会乘车上路；二是由于搭乘无需驾驶的汽车会更舒适，而且能处理更多工作，因此人们可能会花更多的时间在路上。
无人驾驶汽车对停车来说意味着什么？
想象一下不论去往何处都能在门口下车的场景，这可能成为现实。目前城市中心地带约有31%的土地专门用于停车，如果汽车能够自己停在距离更远的卫星定位智能停车场或是非黄金地段的车库，那么这些土地就可以挪作他用。
Why do they need drivers， anyway？
Truth be told， they don't. Right now you could put your dog in Carnegie Mellon University's prototype car on Interstate 95 and have the car drive the dog to Maine （provided18） you teach your dog to pump gas）. The car―and its counterparts19） at Google and abroad―already are pretty capable of handling city traffic. By the time they come into mass production they will be better at negotiating urban streets. But it figures to be a while―maybe a generation20）―before people are comfortable letting these cars loose without someone near the controls.
为什么无人驾驶汽车还是需要司机？
说实话，无人驾驶汽车并不需要司机。现在你就可以在95号州际公路上把你的爱犬放进卡耐基梅隆大学研制的无人驾驶原型车里，并让这辆汽车将它载到缅因州（只要你教会爱犬给车加油）。这辆车（以及谷歌公司和国外研制的同类汽车）已经能很好地应对城市交通路况。等到进入大规模生产阶段时，无人驾驶汽车在城市道路上行驶起来将会更加游刃有余。但预计这一天的到来还需一段时间，也许还要等二三十年，直到人们放心让这些车摆脱人工操纵自由行驶。
1. wrestle [?resl] vi. 试图解决；绞尽脑汁处理
2. projection [pr??d?ek?n] n. 预计；预测；估计
3. inertial [??n???l] adj. 惯性的
4. dead reckoning： 航位推算，指在知道当前时刻位置的条件下，通过测量移动的距离和方位，推算下一时刻位置的方法。
5. deep into the weeds： 涉及细节的
6. asset [??set] n. 有用的人或物
7. overwhelming [???v??welm??] adj. （数量）巨大的，压倒性的
8. fatality [f??t?l?ti] n. （事故或暴力导致的）死亡
9. take [te?k] n. 态度；理解；看法
10. body shop： 车身修理厂
11. congestion [k?n?d?est??n] n. 交通堵塞
12. briskly [?br?skli] adv. 轻快地
13. rubbernecking
[?r?b?nek??] n. 司机在有事故发生时放慢车速好奇观看的现象
14. slowpoke [?sl??p??k] n. 动作迟缓的人
15. right off the bat： 立刻，马上
16. toddle [?t?dl] vi. 离开
17. prime-time： 原指“（广播与电视的）黄金时间”，这里与space连用表示“黄金地段”。
18. provided [pr??va?d?d] conj. 如果；假如；只要
19. counterpart [?ka?nt?p?t] n. （与不同地方或组织的人或物）作用相同者，相对应者
20. generation [?d?en??re??n] n. 一代，一辈（通常指20～30年）