概率在风险决策中的应用

概率在风险决策中的应用

摘要: 由经济学和管理学学科发展的历史和现实本身告诉我们,数学工具是经济学和管理学蓬勃发展的重要推动力量.本文讨论了概率在风险决策和风险衡量中的应用,同时对如何利用贝叶斯方法更科学地进行风险决策的问题进行探讨.

关键词:风险决策, 概率, 决策树, 贝叶斯公式

The Application of probability to the risk decision

Abstract: The history and reality of discipline development of economics and management tells us that the mathematics tool is important motive force vigorous in management and economics.In this context we will discuss the application of probability in risk decision and risk measurement ,meanwhile we will also carry on the discussion that how to carry on risk decision more scientifically by utilizing the method of BAYES.

Keywords: risk desition, probability, desition tree, bayes